Market Flogging

Trend trading in the stock market

Saturday, April 21, 2007

A small facelift

I put some new information in the margin to the right. I'll update my latest monthly results versus the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 results, and also my average monthly results vs. the DJW5k as well. Once I book 12 months, I'll keep a running previous 12 month average monthly return as well.

I'd love to keep a total return stat since inception (or inception of record keeping), but since this is an active SEP IRA that my employer and I are adding to, that isn't practical. My contributed capital balance keeps increasing. I may calculate and publish my IRR instead.

I'd love to come up with more ideas to make this blog more fun and interesting and importantly, useful for readers. I need to do a better job of explaining my picks - what I'm looking at, where my stop is, etc. Also, I need to follow my picks better. Sort of narrate my thoughts during the time I hold a stock. One problem is the charting. The charts are a useful visual tool, but, at least on my screen, they are a bit hard to see. I am using Photobucket to host my chart images. I think if I upgraded my account, my images would be bigger. Maybe there is a better option than this, but I think Photobucket is a very useful and easy tool. Plus, the free space is huge - something I'll never use up at my pace. It seems I've tried the image tool on blogger and didn't like it. I'll have to give it another try.

I'm also going to do a better job of linking to sites I reference. Plus, I'll soon put links to other trading blogs and resources I use. There are some fun reads out there.

I've generally had really decent results over the years, and I'd like for people who struggle to be able to use my blog as a resource in learning how to win. Trading stocks is a ton of fun, and there is no reason to lose money doing it. For the most part, trading is a mental exercise. When I've had losing streaks, it is usually because I've gotten emotionally involved in the process. That's a death sentence to the ol' bankroll. Picking stocks is not the hard part. Having a plan and sticking to it is the hard part. Hell, my stats show that I lose around 60% of the time I enter a trade. Yep, 60% of my trades are losers. If I were to focus on wins and loses, I'd probably have to go out of my mind! Instead, I focus on making money. As long as I make more with my few winning trades than I lose with my many losing trades, I'm a winner. My wins return over 9% on average over an average 42 day holding period. My losses lose just over 4% over an average 11 day holding period.

I'm not thrilled with these stats, and they will improve over time. These are over 132 closed trades since June 1, 2006 when I started trading for myself in my IRA. I'm trading a slightly different technique than I have in the past, and it took me a while to settle in. I was horrible in the beginning, and my stats are skewed down as a result. I'm not quite sure where I'll settle in, but suffice to say, the trend is positive. No pun intended as I am a trend trader:)

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