Market Flogging

Trend trading in the stock market

Friday, April 20, 2007

IR - when, not if

I almost bought IR yesterday. I will buy it at some point:






My favorite chart is the ascending triangle within an uptrend. This very often is an explosive continuation pattern.

Well, I just checked the chart again, and it is moving back up above the resistance line. I pulled the trigger. I'm really kicking myself for not buying it yesterday with very little risk as the stop would be very tight. Now I have a much looser stop. I could set my stop just below the resistance line as it should now act as support, assuming we close above the line. However, I've often found these charts keep trading the trend, meaning the price could dip below the line, but form a higher low. In this case, just above the trend line would be a perfectly acceptable bottom. In that case, my stop is set at 43.50 - 43.75 or so, giving me just under 5% risk on a chart that is moving at about 3.6% or so per month. Not the worst ever, but a little more spread than I like. The chart is just too good though, so I don't want to miss it. I'm willing to gamble a little here.

The market this morning is the exact opposite of yesterday's morning. Almost everything I'm looking at is green. On Fridays I usually expect a selloff of sorts towards the end of the day. No telling how we'll finish up.

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