Market Flogging

Trend trading in the stock market

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Almost fully funded

I have room for one more position. Usually, when I get to this point the market takes a huge dump on me and I stop out several positions. With any luck, it is the junk exiting and I'll be left with the good stuff. That's the way it is supposed to happen at least, and so far I think it is panning out that way. I have several real runners that are lining up to be the monsters that pay for the early losers. I figure I'll probably run about 2/3 losers. Just a guess there, but it makes sense that a lot of stocks moving down close to their trend lines will drop below and stop out early. Of the 1/3 winners, hopefully half or so will be big winners, paying for the losers and returning a good multiple. Time will tell the real story.

I added only one position today, DRIV:






The trend is a very good one. We'll see how it holds up.

I'll add another chart to the mix. SMH looks ready to pop:






This is my favorite pattern - an ascending triangle. During my swing trading days, these were my favorite patterns. I found them to be among the most reliable breakout patterns. I love getting into them prior to the pop. Most patterns I don't feel comfortable trading until they break resistance, but these I like to catch early. This one may or may not work, but I think getting in with a stop under the trend line would be a good idea.

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