Market Flogging

Trend trading in the stock market

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Nice win, thoughts on strategy tweaks

Boy meets stock
Boy loses stock
Boy realizes his mistake and wins stock back
Turns out stock really was crap

Such is the story of TXU. It stopped out today after plunging through its trend line. One day loss of 5%+. Laugh it up fuzballs!

Since I'm bad at learning lessons, I jumped back into PCAR today. It danced a couple days right on the trend line and moved up a bit today. Low risk play on a 3% trend.

Had a real nice day today with the portfolio rising .84%. Of course, ORCL was the star of the show, which I knew it would be today. I got up early so I could watch to make sure it didn't get too far out of hand. It didn't. I mean, 11.5% and jumping right out of the trend channel could be considered "out of hand" I suppose, but I only need 2.5 months or so for my trend line to catch up. I think it has legs from here.

Another stock that had a big day today was HET. It broke out of an ascending triangle today. I'm using the bottom of the triangle as a trend line. I'll know in the next few days if this is truly in a young trend, or if it is simply now a breakout play exiting a bottom pattern. I'd like for it to stay within itself and have a good long, stable run. We'll see.

Had a downgrade in the portfolio today. RAI was punked by one analyst. It seems they're having supplier issues and some store shelves are running out of RAI products. Apparently, smokers glob onto one brand of sweet smelling cotton shirt scents and don't move around. This analyst thinks the outages will cause some brand switching when they can't find their usual brand. Could be. Hey, if you gotta have it, you gotta have it. At any rate, the stock got pummelled pretty good and is now down around the trend line.

Yesterday, LNT flirted with a stop. It didn't do much today, so I could lose it any time now.

My concentration now is on finding nicely trending stocks, and then watching them until they reach within at most a month or so from their support line. No more spending capital and waiting two months for a break-even support line price.

The other thing I'm considering is whether to sell at the top of the trend channel or not. I mean, Why ride it down or watch it trade sideways? Why not sell at the top and buy it back again at the bottom? I could have a stable of trending stocks I trade in and out of as they bottom and top. Thinking..........

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